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Akademik Svishtov vs Yantra 2019 — Third League - Northwest 2018

Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
CANC
00:00
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
4/17/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 20Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Akademik Svishtov37%
×Draw24%
Yantra 201939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademik Svishtov
1.49
Yantra 2019
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 6 away

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov
1.98
Yantra 2019
2.17

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov
0.91
Yantra 2019
1.00

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw
61%
Akademik Svishtov or Yantra 2019
76%
Draw or Yantra 2019
63%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
17%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
77%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
44%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
19%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
79%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
45%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
49%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.49

Yantra 2019 attack 2.17 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more
37%
level
24%
Yantra 2019 scores more
39%

Yantra 2019 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Akademik Svishtov vs Yantra 2019 — Match Preview

Akademik Svishtov face Yantra 2019 on April 17, 2020 in this Third League - Northwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Akademik Svishtov host Yantra 2019 at Stadion Akademik.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.