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Yangpyeong vs Ulsan Citizen — K3 League 2026

Yangpyeong
Yangpyeong
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ulsan Citizen
Ulsan Citizen
6/15/2025K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 13Yangpyeong Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Yangpyeong41%
×Draw27%
Ulsan Citizen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yangpyeong
1.32
Ulsan Citizen
1.11

Yangpyeong creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 68 away

creates per match

Yangpyeong
1.38
Ulsan Citizen
1.06

allows per match

Yangpyeong
1.16
Ulsan Citizen
1.26

finishing

Yangpyeong+0.00on par
Ulsan Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yangpyeong ↓

Ulsan Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yangpyeong or draw
69%
Yangpyeong or Ulsan Citizen
73%
Draw or Ulsan Citizen
59%

Winning margin

Yangpyeong wins by 2+
19%
Ulsan Citizen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yangpyeong 1+ goals
73%
Yangpyeong 2+ goals
38%
Yangpyeong 3+ goals
15%
Ulsan Citizen 1+ goals
67%
Ulsan Citizen 2+ goals
30%
Ulsan Citizen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yangpyeong (draw refunded)
57%
Ulsan Citizen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yangpyeong at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.16 · 37 matches

Ulsan Citizen away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yangpyeong attack 1.38 + Ulsan Citizen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ulsan Citizen attack 1.06 + Yangpyeong defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yangpyeong scores more
41%
level
27%
Ulsan Citizen scores more
31%

Yangpyeong at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yangpyeong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Yangpyeong 2–0 Ulsan Citizen

Yangpyeong beat Ulsan Citizen 2-0 in K3 League on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Yangpyeong Sports Complex in Yangpyeong.