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Ulsan Citizen vs Yangpyeong — K3 League 2026

Ulsan Citizen
Ulsan Citizen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yangpyeong
Yangpyeong
11/11/2023K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 30Ulsan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Ulsan Citizen45%
×Draw29%
Yangpyeong26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulsan Citizen
1.27
Yangpyeong
0.90

Ulsan Citizen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 42 away

creates per match

Ulsan Citizen
0.96
Yangpyeong
0.67

allows per match

Ulsan Citizen
1.13
Yangpyeong
1.57

finishing

Ulsan Citizen+0.00on par
Yangpyeong+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Citizen ↓

Yangpyeong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ulsan Citizen or draw
74%
Ulsan Citizen or Yangpyeong
71%
Draw or Yangpyeong
55%

Winning margin

Ulsan Citizen wins by 2+
20%
Yangpyeong wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ulsan Citizen 1+ goals
72%
Ulsan Citizen 2+ goals
36%
Ulsan Citizen 3+ goals
14%
Yangpyeong 1+ goals
59%
Yangpyeong 2+ goals
23%
Yangpyeong 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Citizen (draw refunded)
63%
Yangpyeong (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Citizen at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.13 · 71 matches

Yangpyeong away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Citizen attack 0.96 + Yangpyeong defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Yangpyeong attack 0.67 + Ulsan Citizen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ulsan Citizen scores more
45%
level
29%
Yangpyeong scores more
26%

Ulsan Citizen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ulsan Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulsan Citizen vs Yangpyeong

Ulsan Citizen and Yangpyeong drew 0-0 in K3 League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Ulsan Stadium in Ulsan.