Yangon United 2–0 Tianjin Songjiang: Result & Stats

Yangon United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tianjin Songjiang

5/15/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Thuwanna YTC Stadium (Yangon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Yangon United83%

×Draw10%

Tianjin Songjiang7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yangon UnitedExpected goals in this matchTianjin Songjiang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.79

1.13

Yangon United

3.79

Tianjin Songjiang

1.13

Yangon United creates 235% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

2.25

creates per match

0.67

1.58

allows per match

5.33

creates per match

Yangon United

2.25

Tianjin Songjiang

0.67

allows per match

Yangon United

1.58

Tianjin Songjiang

5.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yangon United+0.00on par

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yangon United ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Yangon United or draw

93%

Yangon United or Tianjin Songjiang

90%

Draw or Tianjin Songjiang

17%

Winning margin

Yangon United wins by 2+

66%

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Yangon United 1+ goals

98%

Yangon United 2+ goals

88%

Yangon United 3+ goals

70%

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals

68%

Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals

31%

Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Yangon United (draw refunded)

92%

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yangon United at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 0.67, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yangon United attack 2.25 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.79

Tianjin Songjiang attack 0.67 + Yangon United defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Yangon United scores more

83%

level

10%

Tianjin Songjiang scores more

7%

Yangon United at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Yangon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff