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Tianjin Songjiang vs Yangon United — AFC Cup 2018

Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Yangon United
Yangon United
3/12/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Phnom Penh National Olympic Stadium (Phnom Penh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang23%
×Draw17%
Yangon United60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Songjiang
1.83
Yangon United
2.95

Yangon United creates 61% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang
1.33
Yangon United
2.22

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang
3.67
Yangon United
2.33

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par
Yangon United+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

Yangon United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw
40%
Tianjin Songjiang or Yangon United
83%
Draw or Yangon United
77%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
11%
Yangon United wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
84%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
54%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
28%
Yangon United 1+ goals
95%
Yangon United 2+ goals
79%
Yangon United 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
28%
Yangon United (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Yangon United away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.33 + Yangon United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Yangon United attack 2.22 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more
23%
level
17%
Yangon United scores more
60%

Yangon United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Yangon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tianjin Songjiang vs Yangon United

Tianjin Songjiang beat Yangon United 2-1 in AFC Cup on March 12, 2019.

The match was played at Phnom Penh National Olympic Stadium (Phnom Penh).