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Yangon United vs Ceres — AFC Cup 2018

Yangon United
Yangon Unitedadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ceres
Ceres
5/16/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Zonal Semi-FinalsThuwanna YTC Stadium (Yangon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Yangon United36%
×Draw22%
Ceres42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yangon United
1.73
Ceres
1.90

Ceres creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Yangon United
2.25
Ceres
2.22

allows per match

Yangon United
1.58
Ceres
1.22

finishing

Yangon United+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yangon United ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Yangon United or draw
58%
Yangon United or Ceres
78%
Draw or Ceres
64%

Winning margin

Yangon United wins by 2+
18%
Ceres wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Yangon United 1+ goals
82%
Yangon United 2+ goals
52%
Yangon United 3+ goals
25%
Ceres 1+ goals
85%
Ceres 2+ goals
56%
Ceres 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Yangon United (draw refunded)
46%
Ceres (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yangon United at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Ceres away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yangon United attack 2.25 + Ceres defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ceres attack 2.22 + Yangon United defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yangon United scores more
36%
level
22%
Ceres scores more
42%

Ceres at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Yangon United 3–2 Ceres

Yangon United beat Ceres 3-2 in AFC Cup on May 16, 2018.

The match was played at Thuwanna YTC Stadium (Yangon).