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Ceres vs Yangon United — AFC Cup 2018

Ceres
Ceresadvanced
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Yangon United
Yangon United
5/9/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Zonal Semi-FinalsPanaad Stadium (Bacolod City)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ceres57%
×Draw19%
Yangon United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
2.46
Yangon United
1.57

Ceres creates 57% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ceres
2.58
Yangon United
2.22

allows per match

Ceres
0.92
Yangon United
2.33

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Yangon United+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Yangon United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
76%
Ceres or Yangon United
81%
Draw or Yangon United
43%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
36%
Yangon United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
91%
Ceres 2+ goals
70%
Ceres 3+ goals
44%
Yangon United 1+ goals
79%
Yangon United 2+ goals
46%
Yangon United 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
70%
Yangon United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Yangon United away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 2.58 + Yangon United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.46

Yangon United attack 2.22 + Ceres defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ceres scores more
57%
level
19%
Yangon United scores more
24%

Ceres at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceres vs Yangon United

Ceres beat Yangon United 4-2 in AFC Cup on May 9, 2018.

The match was played at Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City).