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Yangju Citizen vs Dangjin Citizen — K3 League 2026

Yangju Citizen
Yangju Citizen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dangjin Citizen
Dangjin Citizen
7/10/2022K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 20Yangju Godeok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Yangju Citizen42%
×Draw27%
Dangjin Citizen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yangju Citizen
1.38
Dangjin Citizen
1.16

Yangju Citizen creates 19% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 26 away

creates per match

Yangju Citizen
1.06
Dangjin Citizen
0.92

allows per match

Yangju Citizen
1.39
Dangjin Citizen
1.69

finishing

Yangju Citizen+0.00on par
Dangjin Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yangju Citizen ↓

Dangjin Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yangju Citizen or draw
68%
Yangju Citizen or Dangjin Citizen
73%
Draw or Dangjin Citizen
58%

Winning margin

Yangju Citizen wins by 2+
20%
Dangjin Citizen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Yangju Citizen 1+ goals
75%
Yangju Citizen 2+ goals
40%
Yangju Citizen 3+ goals
16%
Dangjin Citizen 1+ goals
69%
Dangjin Citizen 2+ goals
32%
Dangjin Citizen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)
57%
Dangjin Citizen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yangju Citizen at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Dangjin Citizen away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yangju Citizen attack 1.06 + Dangjin Citizen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dangjin Citizen attack 0.92 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yangju Citizen scores more
42%
level
27%
Dangjin Citizen scores more
32%

Yangju Citizen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yangju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Yangju Citizen 2–0 Dangjin Citizen

Yangju Citizen beat Dangjin Citizen 2-0 in K3 League on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at Yangju Godeok Stadium in Yangju.