Dangjin Citizen 0–1 Yangju Citizen: Result & Stats

Dangjin Citizen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Yangju Citizen

3/26/2022

K3 League · Round 5Dangjin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dangjin Citizen47%

×Draw25%

Yangju Citizen28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dangjin CitizenExpected goals in this matchYangju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.12

Dangjin Citizen

1.54

Yangju Citizen

1.12

Dangjin Citizen creates 38% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 54 away

1.38

creates per match

0.67

1.57

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Dangjin Citizen

1.38

Yangju Citizen

0.67

allows per match

Dangjin Citizen

1.57

Yangju Citizen

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dangjin Citizen+0.00on par

Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dangjin Citizen ↓

Yangju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Dangjin Citizen or draw

72%

Dangjin Citizen or Yangju Citizen

75%

Draw or Yangju Citizen

53%

Winning margin

Dangjin Citizen wins by 2+

24%

Yangju Citizen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dangjin Citizen 1+ goals

79%

Dangjin Citizen 2+ goals

45%

Dangjin Citizen 3+ goals

20%

Yangju Citizen 1+ goals

67%

Yangju Citizen 2+ goals

31%

Yangju Citizen 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dangjin Citizen (draw refunded)

63%

Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dangjin Citizen at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.70 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dangjin Citizen attack 1.38 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Yangju Citizen attack 0.67 + Dangjin Citizen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dangjin Citizen scores more

47%

level

25%

Yangju Citizen scores more

28%

Dangjin Citizen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dangjin Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff