Yangju Citizen 1–1 Changwon City: Result & Stats

Yangju Citizen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Changwon City

9/4/2021

K3 League · Round 22Yangju Godeok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Yangju Citizen34%

×Draw28%

Changwon City38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yangju CitizenExpected goals in this matchChangwon City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.21

Yangju Citizen

1.13

Changwon City

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 107 away

1.06

creates per match

1.03

1.39

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Yangju Citizen

1.06

Changwon City

1.03

allows per match

Yangju Citizen

1.39

Changwon City

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Changwon City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yangju Citizen ↓

Changwon City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Yangju Citizen or draw

62%

Yangju Citizen or Changwon City

72%

Draw or Changwon City

66%

Winning margin

Yangju Citizen wins by 2+

14%

Changwon City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Yangju Citizen 1+ goals

68%

Yangju Citizen 2+ goals

31%

Yangju Citizen 3+ goals

11%

Changwon City 1+ goals

70%

Changwon City 2+ goals

34%

Changwon City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)

47%

Changwon City (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yangju Citizen at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Changwon City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.19 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yangju Citizen attack 1.06 + Changwon City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Changwon City attack 1.03 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Yangju Citizen scores more

34%

level

28%

Changwon City scores more

38%

Changwon City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Changwon City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff