Changwon City 0–1 Yangju Citizen: Result & Stats

Changwon City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Yangju Citizen

5/28/2022

K3 League · Round 14Changwon Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Changwon City50%

×Draw27%

Yangju Citizen23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Changwon CityExpected goals in this matchYangju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.85

Changwon City

1.41

Yangju Citizen

0.85

Changwon City creates 66% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 54 away

1.12

creates per match

0.67

1.04

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Changwon City

1.12

Yangju Citizen

0.67

allows per match

Changwon City

1.04

Yangju Citizen

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Changwon City+0.00on par

Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changwon City ↓

Yangju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Changwon City or draw

77%

Changwon City or Yangju Citizen

73%

Draw or Yangju Citizen

50%

Winning margin

Changwon City wins by 2+

25%

Yangju Citizen wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Changwon City 1+ goals

76%

Changwon City 2+ goals

41%

Changwon City 3+ goals

17%

Yangju Citizen 1+ goals

57%

Yangju Citizen 2+ goals

21%

Yangju Citizen 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Changwon City (draw refunded)

69%

Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changwon City at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Yangju Citizen away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.70 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changwon City attack 1.12 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Yangju Citizen attack 0.67 + Changwon City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Changwon City scores more

50%

level

27%

Yangju Citizen scores more

23%

Changwon City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Changwon City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff