Yanbian Longding 1–1 Quanzhou Yassin

Yanbian Longding

FT

1 – 1

Quanzhou Yassin

7/3/2022

League Two · Round 1Dalian Puwan Outfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yanbian Longding42%

×Draw26%

Quanzhou Yassin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yanbian LongdingExpected goals in this matchQuanzhou Yassin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.17

Yanbian Longding

1.40

Quanzhou Yassin

1.17

Yanbian Longding creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 47 away

1.00

creates per match

0.77

1.57

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Yanbian Longding

1.00

Quanzhou Yassin

0.77

allows per match

Yanbian Longding

1.57

Quanzhou Yassin

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Longding ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Yanbian Longding or draw

69%

Yanbian Longding or Quanzhou Yassin

74%

Draw or Quanzhou Yassin

58%

Winning margin

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+

20%

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals

75%

Yanbian Longding 2+ goals

41%

Yanbian Longding 3+ goals

17%

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

69%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

33%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)

57%

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Longding at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Longding attack 1.00 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Yanbian Longding defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yanbian Longding scores more

42%

level

26%

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

31%

Yanbian Longding at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yanbian Longding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff