Quanzhou Yassin 0–2 Yanbian Longding

Quanzhou Yassin

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Yanbian Longding

7/26/2022

League Two · Round 5Dalian Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin20%

×Draw29%

Yanbian Longding52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quanzhou YassinExpected goals in this matchYanbian Longding

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

1.31

Quanzhou Yassin

0.69

Yanbian Longding

1.31

Yanbian Longding creates 90% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 8 away

0.88

creates per match

1.25

1.38

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin

0.88

Yanbian Longding

1.25

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin

1.38

Yanbian Longding

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Yanbian Longding →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–118%

0–212%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw

48%

Quanzhou Yassin or Yanbian Longding

71%

Draw or Yanbian Longding

80%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

5%

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

50%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

15%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

3%

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals

73%

Yanbian Longding 2+ goals

38%

Yanbian Longding 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

28%

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Yanbian Longding away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Yanbian Longding defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.69

Yanbian Longding attack 1.25 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

20%

level

29%

Yanbian Longding scores more

52%

Yanbian Longding at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yanbian Longding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff