Yanbian Longding 2–2 Qingdao Youth Island

Yanbian Longding

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Qingdao Youth Island

7/22/2023

League One · Round 15Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Yanbian Longding43%

×Draw27%

Qingdao Youth Island30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yanbian LongdingExpected goals in this matchQingdao Youth Island

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.06

Yanbian Longding

1.34

Qingdao Youth Island

1.06

Yanbian Longding creates 26% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 32 away

1.56

creates per match

1.19

0.94

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Yanbian Longding

1.56

Qingdao Youth Island

1.19

allows per match

Yanbian Longding

0.94

Qingdao Youth Island

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Longding ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Yanbian Longding or draw

70%

Yanbian Longding or Qingdao Youth Island

73%

Draw or Qingdao Youth Island

57%

Winning margin

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+

20%

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals

74%

Yanbian Longding 2+ goals

39%

Yanbian Longding 3+ goals

15%

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals

65%

Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals

29%

Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)

59%

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Longding at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 52 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Longding attack 1.56 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.19 + Yanbian Longding defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yanbian Longding scores more

43%

level

27%

Qingdao Youth Island scores more

30%

Yanbian Longding at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yanbian Longding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff