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Qingdao Youth Island vs Yanbian Longding — League One 2026

Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding
11/5/2023League OneLeague One · Round 30Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Qingdao Youth Island51%
×Draw27%
Yanbian Longding23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Youth Island
1.47
Yanbian Longding
0.88

Qingdao Youth Island creates 67% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 53 away

creates per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.61
Yanbian Longding
0.85

allows per match

Qingdao Youth Island
0.91
Yanbian Longding
1.32

finishing

Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par
Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Youth Island ↓

Yanbian Longding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Qingdao Youth Island or draw
77%
Qingdao Youth Island or Yanbian Longding
73%
Draw or Yanbian Longding
49%

Winning margin

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
26%
Yanbian Longding wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
77%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
43%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
18%
Yanbian Longding 1+ goals
59%
Yanbian Longding 2+ goals
22%
Yanbian Longding 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
69%
Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Yanbian Longding away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.32 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.61 + Yanbian Longding defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Yanbian Longding attack 0.85 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Qingdao Youth Island scores more
51%
level
27%
Yanbian Longding scores more
23%

Qingdao Youth Island at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Qingdao Youth Island will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Qingdao Youth Island 1–0 Yanbian Longding

Qingdao Youth Island beat Yanbian Longding 1-0 in League One on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center in Qingdao.