Yanbian Longding 6–1 Nanjing City: Result & Stats

Yanbian Longding

FT

6 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nanjing City

11/8/2025

League One · Round 30Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Yanbian Longding48%

×Draw26%

Nanjing City25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yanbian LongdingExpected goals in this matchNanjing City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.98

Yanbian Longding

1.46

Nanjing City

0.98

Yanbian Longding creates 49% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 86 away

1.56

creates per match

1.03

0.94

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Yanbian Longding

1.56

Nanjing City

1.03

allows per match

Yanbian Longding

0.94

Nanjing City

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Nanjing City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Longding ↓

Nanjing City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Yanbian Longding or draw

75%

Yanbian Longding or Nanjing City

74%

Draw or Nanjing City

52%

Winning margin

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+

24%

Nanjing City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals

77%

Yanbian Longding 2+ goals

43%

Yanbian Longding 3+ goals

18%

Nanjing City 1+ goals

62%

Nanjing City 2+ goals

26%

Nanjing City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)

66%

Nanjing City (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Longding at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 52 matches

Nanjing City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Longding attack 1.56 + Nanjing City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nanjing City attack 1.03 + Yanbian Longding defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Yanbian Longding scores more

48%

level

26%

Nanjing City scores more

25%

Yanbian Longding at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Yanbian Longding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Yanbian Longding 6–1 Nanjing City

Yanbian Longding beat Nanjing City 6-1 in League One on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium in Yanji.

Yanbian Longding vs Nanjing City — League One 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

League One: Yanbian Longding 6–1 Nanjing City