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Nanjing City vs Yanbian Longding — League One 2026

Nanjing City
Nanjing City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding
7/6/2025League OneLeague One · Round 15Wutaishan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Nanjing City46%
×Draw28%
Yanbian Longding26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nanjing City
1.35
Yanbian Longding
0.95

Nanjing City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 53 away

creates per match

Nanjing City
1.38
Yanbian Longding
0.85

allows per match

Nanjing City
1.05
Yanbian Longding
1.32

finishing

Nanjing City+0.00on par
Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nanjing City ↓

Yanbian Longding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nanjing City or draw
74%
Nanjing City or Yanbian Longding
72%
Draw or Yanbian Longding
54%

Winning margin

Nanjing City wins by 2+
22%
Yanbian Longding wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nanjing City 1+ goals
74%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
39%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
15%
Yanbian Longding 1+ goals
61%
Yanbian Longding 2+ goals
25%
Yanbian Longding 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nanjing City (draw refunded)
64%
Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nanjing City at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 86 matches

Yanbian Longding away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.32 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nanjing City attack 1.38 + Yanbian Longding defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Yanbian Longding attack 0.85 + Nanjing City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nanjing City scores more
46%
level
28%
Yanbian Longding scores more
26%

Nanjing City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nanjing City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nanjing City vs Yanbian Longding

Nanjing City and Yanbian Longding drew 1-1 in League One on July 6, 2025.

The match was played at Wutaishan Stadium in Nanjing.