Yanbian Longding 1–0 Guangxi Baoyun: Result & Stats

Yanbian Longding

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guangxi Baoyun

F. Brown 4'

6/22/2025

League One · Round 13Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yanbian Longding61%

×Draw24%

Guangxi Baoyun15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yanbian LongdingExpected goals in this matchGuangxi Baoyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.71

Yanbian Longding

1.69

Guangxi Baoyun

0.71

Yanbian Longding creates 138% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

1.78

creates per match

0.67

0.74

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Yanbian Longding

1.78

Guangxi Baoyun

0.67

allows per match

Yanbian Longding

0.74

Guangxi Baoyun

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Longding ↓

Guangxi Baoyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Yanbian Longding or draw

85%

Yanbian Longding or Guangxi Baoyun

76%

Draw or Guangxi Baoyun

39%

Winning margin

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+

34%

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals

82%

Yanbian Longding 2+ goals

50%

Yanbian Longding 3+ goals

24%

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals

51%

Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals

16%

Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)

80%

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Longding at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.74 · 23 matches

Guangxi Baoyun away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Longding attack 1.78 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Guangxi Baoyun attack 0.67 + Yanbian Longding defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Yanbian Longding scores more

61%

level

24%

Guangxi Baoyun scores more

15%

Yanbian Longding at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Yanbian Longding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

F. Brown↳ C. Ondong-Mba

30'

Ding Quancheng

34'

Jiang Zhengjie← Yao Diran

46'

Mateus← Ding Quancheng

46'

Zhang Zili← Lu Chenghe

47'

Jiang Zhengjie

55'

Wei Guoren← Yang Jingfan

64'

Li Qiang← C. Ondong-Mba

64'

Xu Wenguang← Li Shibin

72'

77'

80'

81'

85'

Chen Shihao← Fu Shang

89'

Qian Changjie← Piao Shihao

Yanbian

Guangxi

22

Lipan

28

Shaohao

5

▼

Diran

45

Wei

7

Ran

33

▼

Quancheng

39

▼

Chenghe

19

Quanjiang

17

▼

Jingfan

8

Jiajin

29

▼

Shang

21

Jiahao

7

▼

3

33

15

14

20

▼

Taiyan

17

▼

Shihao

10

⚽

Brown

5

Domingos

11

A

▼

Ondong-Mb

Manager: Ki-Hyung Lee

64'▲Li Qiang←▼C. Ondong-Mba

64'▲Xu Wenguang←▼Li Shibin

72'▲Li Ximin←▼Jin Taiyan

89'▲Qian Changjie←▼Piao Shihao

Yanbian Longding substitutes

1Shengmin2Yunpeng4Zeping6Qiang8Guangmin16Wenguang19Jialin22Jinyu23Ximin31Changjie32Da

Manager: Koji Maeda

34'▲Jiang Zhengjie←▼Yao Diran

46'▲Mateus←▼Ding Quancheng

46'▲Zhang Zili←▼Lu Chenghe

55'▲Wei Guoren←▼Yang Jingfan

85'▲Chen Shihao←▼Fu Shang

Guangxi Baoyun substitutes

1Yanhan9Mateus10Asamoah16Zili18Hang20Zhengjie25Shihao27Guoren