Guangxi Baoyun 0–2 Yanbian Longding: Result & Stats

Guangxi Baoyun

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Yanbian Longding

F. Brown 82' (pen)

Jin Taiyan 80'

10/26/2025

League One · Round 28Pingguo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Guangxi Baoyun33%

×Draw27%

Yanbian Longding40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangxi BaoyunExpected goals in this matchYanbian Longding

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.29

Guangxi Baoyun

1.14

Yanbian Longding

1.29

Yanbian Longding creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 24 away

1.06

creates per match

1.08

1.50

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Guangxi Baoyun

1.06

Yanbian Longding

1.08

allows per match

Guangxi Baoyun

1.50

Yanbian Longding

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangxi Baoyun+0.00on par

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Baoyun ↓

Yanbian Longding →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guangxi Baoyun or draw

60%

Guangxi Baoyun or Yanbian Longding

73%

Draw or Yanbian Longding

67%

Winning margin

Guangxi Baoyun wins by 2+

13%

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Guangxi Baoyun 1+ goals

68%

Guangxi Baoyun 2+ goals

32%

Guangxi Baoyun 3+ goals

11%

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals

72%

Yanbian Longding 2+ goals

37%

Yanbian Longding 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Baoyun (draw refunded)

45%

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Baoyun at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Yanbian Longding away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Baoyun attack 1.06 + Yanbian Longding defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Yanbian Longding attack 1.08 + Guangxi Baoyun defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guangxi Baoyun scores more

33%

level

27%

Yanbian Longding scores more

40%

Yanbian Longding at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yanbian Longding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Liu Hao

45+1'

J. Domingos

45+7'

F. Brown

54'

Yang Jingfan← Lu Chenghe

69'

Yang Minjie← Chen Quanjiang

70'

Fan Chao← Liu Hao

73'

Khedrup Lobsang← R. Li

73'

P. Ukachukwu← Huang Zhenfei

80'

Jin Taiyan↳ Li Qiang

82'

Wang Jinshuai

82'

F. BrownPenalty

85'

Khedrup Lobsang

86'

Zhang Wei← Fu Shang

86'

Ding Quancheng← You Wenjie

87'

Wang Zihao← Jin Taiyan

90'

Han Guangmin← Piao Shihao

Guangxi

Yanbian

21

Jiahao

36

▼

28

15

16

20

⚽

▼

Taiyan

5

Domingos

17

▼

Shihao

6

A

Qiang

10

⚽

Brown

30

▼

13

35

5

4

34

32

▼

Wenjie

11

▼

Hao

19

▼

Quanjiang

29

▼

Shang

39

▼

Chenghe

43

Cheukoua

Manager: Koji Maeda

54'▲Yang Jingfan←▼Lu Chenghe

69'▲Yang Minjie←▼Chen Quanjiang

70'▲Fan Chao←▼Liu Hao

86'▲Zhang Wei←▼Fu Shang

86'▲Ding Quancheng←▼You Wenjie

Guangxi Baoyun substitutes

38Wei25Shihao16Zili17Jingfan36Minjie27Guoren1Yanhan2An8Jiajin44Chao33Quancheng28Shaohao

Manager: Ki-Hyung Lee

73'▲Khedrup Lobsang←▼R. Li

73'▲P. Ukachukwu←▼Huang Zhenfei

87'▲Wang Zihao←▼Jin Taiyan

90'▲Han Guangmin←▼Piao Shihao

Yanbian Longding substitutes

4Zeping19Jialin8Guangmin33Ziqian18Lobsang23Ximin1Shengmin32Da31Changjie29Ukachukwu38Zihao35Chengkuai