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Yambol 1915 vs Vereya Stara Zagora — Third League - Southeast 2018

Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
FT
1 – 2
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
8/15/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 2Stadion Tundzha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Yambol 191576%
×Draw14%
Vereya Stara Zagora10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yambol 1915
2.92
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.97

Yambol 1915 creates 201% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 36 away

creates per match

Yambol 1915
1.54
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.53

allows per match

Yambol 1915
1.41
Vereya Stara Zagora
4.31

finishing

Yambol 1915+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yambol 1915 ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Yambol 1915 or draw
90%
Yambol 1915 or Vereya Stara Zagora
86%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
24%

Winning margin

Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
56%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Yambol 1915 1+ goals
94%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
78%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
55%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
62%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
25%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
89%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yambol 1915 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yambol 1915 attack 1.54 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 2.92

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Yambol 1915 scores more
76%
level
14%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
10%

Yambol 1915 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Yambol 1915 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Yambol 1915 1–2 Vereya Stara Zagora

Vereya Stara Zagora beat Yambol 1915 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Tundzha in Yambol.