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Vereya Stara Zagora vs Yambol 1915 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
FT
0 – 1
Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
2/27/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 19Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora17%
×Draw18%
Yambol 191565%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.21
Yambol 1915
2.47

Yambol 1915 creates 104% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 118 away

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.75
Yambol 1915
1.08

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
3.86
Yambol 1915
1.66

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par
Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Yambol 1915 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw
35%
Vereya Stara Zagora or Yambol 1915
82%
Draw or Yambol 1915
83%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
7%
Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
70%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
34%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
12%
Yambol 1915 1+ goals
91%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
70%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
21%
Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.86 · 36 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.75 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.21

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
17%
level
18%
Yambol 1915 scores more
65%

Yambol 1915 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Yambol 1915 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Vereya Stara Zagora 0–1 Yambol 1915

Yambol 1915 beat Vereya Stara Zagora 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Trace Arena in Stara Zagora.