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Yambol 1915 vs Gigant Saedinenie — Third League - Southeast 2018

Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
FT
4 – 1
Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
3/23/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 25Stadion Tundzha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Yambol 191542%
×Draw25%
Gigant Saedinenie33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yambol 1915
1.48
Gigant Saedinenie
1.29

Yambol 1915 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 136 away

creates per match

Yambol 1915
1.54
Gigant Saedinenie
1.17

allows per match

Yambol 1915
1.41
Gigant Saedinenie
1.42

finishing

Yambol 1915+0.00on par
Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yambol 1915 ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Yambol 1915 or draw
67%
Yambol 1915 or Gigant Saedinenie
75%
Draw or Gigant Saedinenie
58%

Winning margin

Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
20%
Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Yambol 1915 1+ goals
77%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
43%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
19%
Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
72%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
37%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
56%
Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yambol 1915 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yambol 1915 attack 1.54 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yambol 1915 scores more
42%
level
25%
Gigant Saedinenie scores more
33%

Yambol 1915 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yambol 1915 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yambol 1915 vs Gigant Saedinenie

Yambol 1915 beat Gigant Saedinenie 4-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Tundzha in Yambol.