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Gigant Saedinenie vs Yambol 1915 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
6/1/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 38Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie57%
×Draw23%
Yambol 191519%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
1.75
Yambol 1915
0.91

Gigant Saedinenie creates 92% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 118 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
Yambol 1915
1.08

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
Yambol 1915
1.66

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Yambol 1915 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
81%
Gigant Saedinenie or Yambol 1915
77%
Draw or Yambol 1915
43%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
32%
Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
83%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
52%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
25%
Yambol 1915 1+ goals
60%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
23%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
75%
Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
57%
level
23%
Yambol 1915 scores more
19%

Gigant Saedinenie at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Gigant Saedinenie 1–1 Yambol 1915

Gigant Saedinenie and Yambol 1915 drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Saedinenie.