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Yambol 1915 vs Borislav 2009 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
CANC
15:00
Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
5/28/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 34Stadion Tundzha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Yambol 191557%
×Draw21%
Borislav 200921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yambol 1915
2.03
Borislav 2009
1.16

Yambol 1915 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 79 away

creates per match

Yambol 1915
1.54
Borislav 2009
0.91

allows per match

Yambol 1915
1.41
Borislav 2009
2.52

finishing

Yambol 1915+0.00on par
Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yambol 1915 ↓

Borislav 2009 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Yambol 1915 or draw
79%
Yambol 1915 or Borislav 2009
79%
Draw or Borislav 2009
43%

Winning margin

Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
34%
Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yambol 1915 1+ goals
87%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
60%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
33%
Borislav 2009 1+ goals
69%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
32%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
73%
Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yambol 1915 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yambol 1915 attack 1.54 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.03

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Yambol 1915 scores more
57%
level
21%
Borislav 2009 scores more
21%

Yambol 1915 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Yambol 1915 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yambol 1915 face Borislav 2009 (Third League - Southeast)

Third League - Southeast returns with Yambol 1915 hosting Borislav 2009. Match starts May 28, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Yambol 1915 host Borislav 2009 at Stadion Tundzha.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.