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Borislav 2009 vs Yambol 1915 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
10/22/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 13Stadion Borislav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Borislav 200948%
×Draw25%
Yambol 191528%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borislav 2009
1.63
Yambol 1915
1.19

Borislav 2009 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 118 away

creates per match

Borislav 2009
1.59
Yambol 1915
1.08

allows per match

Borislav 2009
1.29
Yambol 1915
1.66

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par
Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Yambol 1915 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw
72%
Borislav 2009 or Yambol 1915
75%
Draw or Yambol 1915
52%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
25%
Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals
80%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
48%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
22%
Yambol 1915 1+ goals
70%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
33%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
63%
Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more
48%
level
25%
Yambol 1915 scores more
28%

Borislav 2009 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Borislav 2009 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Borislav 2009 1 – 0 Yambol 1915

Borislav 2009 beat Yambol 1915 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Borislav in Parvomay.