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Yambol 1915 vs Atletik Kuklen — Third League - Southeast 2018

Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
4/17/2026Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Yambol 191553%
×Draw23%
Atletik Kuklen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yambol 1915
1.88
Atletik Kuklen
1.21

Yambol 1915 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 135 away

creates per match

Yambol 1915
1.54
Atletik Kuklen
1.00

allows per match

Yambol 1915
1.41
Atletik Kuklen
2.21

finishing

Yambol 1915+0.00on par
Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yambol 1915 ↓

Atletik Kuklen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Yambol 1915 or draw
75%
Yambol 1915 or Atletik Kuklen
77%
Draw or Atletik Kuklen
47%

Winning margin

Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
30%
Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Yambol 1915 1+ goals
85%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
56%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
29%
Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
70%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
34%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
68%
Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yambol 1915 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Atletik Kuklen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yambol 1915 attack 1.54 + Atletik Kuklen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.88

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.00 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yambol 1915 scores more
53%
level
23%
Atletik Kuklen scores more
25%

Yambol 1915 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yambol 1915 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Yambol 1915 1–1 Atletik Kuklen

Yambol 1915 and Atletik Kuklen drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on April 17, 2026.