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Atletik Kuklen vs Yambol 1915 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
10/4/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 11Stadion Kuklen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Atletik Kuklen47%
×Draw25%
Yambol 191528%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletik Kuklen
1.56
Yambol 1915
1.15

Atletik Kuklen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 118 away

creates per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.46
Yambol 1915
1.08

allows per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.21
Yambol 1915
1.66

finishing

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par
Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletik Kuklen ↓

Yambol 1915 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atletik Kuklen or draw
72%
Atletik Kuklen or Yambol 1915
75%
Draw or Yambol 1915
53%

Winning margin

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
24%
Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
79%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
46%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
21%
Yambol 1915 1+ goals
68%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
32%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
62%
Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletik Kuklen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

Yambol 1915 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.66 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.46 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.56

Yambol 1915 attack 1.08 + Atletik Kuklen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atletik Kuklen scores more
47%
level
25%
Yambol 1915 scores more
28%

Atletik Kuklen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atletik Kuklen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletik Kuklen vs Yambol 1915

Atletik Kuklen beat Yambol 1915 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Kuklen in Kuklen.