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Yagüe vs Rapid de Murillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Yagüe
Yagüe
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Rapid de Murillo
Rapid de Murillo
2/26/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 21Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yagüe65%
×Draw18%
Rapid de Murillo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yagüe
2.50
Rapid de Murillo
1.21

Yagüe creates 107% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 15 away

creates per match

Yagüe
1.54
Rapid de Murillo
0.73

allows per match

Yagüe
1.69
Rapid de Murillo
3.47

finishing

Yagüe+0.00on par
Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yagüe ↓

Rapid de Murillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Yagüe or draw
83%
Yagüe or Rapid de Murillo
82%
Draw or Rapid de Murillo
35%

Winning margin

Yagüe wins by 2+
43%
Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Yagüe 1+ goals
92%
Yagüe 2+ goals
71%
Yagüe 3+ goals
45%
Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals
70%
Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals
34%
Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Yagüe (draw refunded)
79%
Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yagüe at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 91 matches

Rapid de Murillo away — creates 0.73, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yagüe attack 1.54 + Rapid de Murillo defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.50

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.73 + Yagüe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Yagüe scores more
65%
level
18%
Rapid de Murillo scores more
17%

Yagüe at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Yagüe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Yagüe 1–3 Rapid de Murillo

Rapid de Murillo beat Yagüe 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.