Rapid de Murillo 1–1 Yagüe: Result & Stats

Rapid de Murillo

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Yagüe

10/16/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 6Estadio El Rozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rapid de Murillo33%

×Draw24%

Yagüe43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapid de MurilloExpected goals in this matchYagüe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.65

Rapid de Murillo

1.43

Yagüe

1.65

Yagüe creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

0.87

creates per match

0.90

2.40

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Rapid de Murillo

0.87

Yagüe

0.90

allows per match

Rapid de Murillo

2.40

Yagüe

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapid de Murillo+0.00on par

Yagüe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapid de Murillo ↓

Yagüe →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Rapid de Murillo or draw

57%

Rapid de Murillo or Yagüe

76%

Draw or Yagüe

67%

Winning margin

Rapid de Murillo wins by 2+

15%

Yagüe wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rapid de Murillo 1+ goals

76%

Rapid de Murillo 2+ goals

42%

Rapid de Murillo 3+ goals

17%

Yagüe 1+ goals

81%

Yagüe 2+ goals

49%

Yagüe 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Rapid de Murillo (draw refunded)

44%

Yagüe (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rapid de Murillo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Yagüe away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.99 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rapid de Murillo attack 0.87 + Yagüe defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.43

Yagüe attack 0.90 + Rapid de Murillo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rapid de Murillo scores more

33%

level

24%

Yagüe scores more

43%

Yagüe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yagüe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapid de Murillo vs Yagüe

Rapid de Murillo and Yagüe drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Rozo in Murillo de Río Leza.

Rapid de Murillo vs Yagüe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rapid de Murillo vs Yagüe