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Yafoot vs Tonnerre — Elite Two 2020

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
11/18/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Yafoot32%
×Draw28%
Tonnerre39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.09
Tonnerre
1.23

Tonnerre creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 42 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.82
Tonnerre
1.02

allows per match

Yafoot
1.43
Tonnerre
1.36

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
61%
Yafoot or Tonnerre
72%
Draw or Tonnerre
68%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
13%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
66%
Yafoot 2+ goals
30%
Yafoot 3+ goals
10%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
71%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
35%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
45%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.82 + Tonnerre defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Tonnerre attack 1.02 + Yafoot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yafoot scores more
32%
level
28%
Tonnerre scores more
39%

Tonnerre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yafoot vs Tonnerre

Tonnerre beat Yafoot 3-2 in Elite Two on November 18, 2023.