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Tonnerre vs Yafoot — Elite Two 2020

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
2 – 0
Yafoot
Yafoot
1/6/2024Elite TwoElite Two · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tonnerre47%
×Draw27%
Yafoot27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
1.44
Yafoot
1.02

Tonnerre creates 41% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 33 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
1.46
Yafoot
0.91

allows per match

Tonnerre
1.13
Yafoot
1.42

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
Yafoot+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Yafoot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
73%
Tonnerre or Yafoot
73%
Draw or Yafoot
53%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
23%
Yafoot wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
76%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
42%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
18%
Yafoot 1+ goals
64%
Yafoot 2+ goals
27%
Yafoot 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
64%
Yafoot (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 46 matches

Yafoot away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.46 + Yafoot defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Yafoot attack 0.91 + Tonnerre defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tonnerre scores more
47%
level
27%
Yafoot scores more
27%

Tonnerre at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tonnerre vs Yafoot

Tonnerre beat Yafoot 2-0 in Elite Two on January 6, 2024.