Yafoot 0–1 Renaissance: Result & Stats | Elite One

Yafoot

FT

0 – 1

Renaissance

3/23/2022

Elite One · Round 2Middle Farm Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Yafoot39%

×Draw28%

Renaissance33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YafootExpected goals in this matchRenaissance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.13

Yafoot

1.25

Renaissance

1.13

Yafoot creates 11% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 21 away

0.84

creates per match

0.81

1.44

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Yafoot

0.84

Renaissance

0.81

allows per match

Yafoot

1.44

Renaissance

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par

Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Renaissance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw

67%

Yafoot or Renaissance

72%

Draw or Renaissance

61%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+

17%

Renaissance wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals

71%

Yafoot 2+ goals

36%

Yafoot 3+ goals

13%

Renaissance 1+ goals

68%

Renaissance 2+ goals

31%

Renaissance 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)

54%

Renaissance (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.84 + Renaissance defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Renaissance attack 0.81 + Yafoot defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yafoot scores more

39%

level

28%

Renaissance scores more

33%

Yafoot at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yafoot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff