Renaissance 0–2 Yafoot: Result & Stats | Elite Two

Renaissance

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Yafoot

3/24/2024

Elite Two · Relegation Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Renaissance43%

×Draw27%

Yafoot30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RenaissanceExpected goals in this matchYafoot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.09

Renaissance

1.38

Yafoot

1.09

Renaissance creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

1.33

creates per match

0.91

1.27

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Renaissance

1.33

Yafoot

0.91

allows per match

Renaissance

1.27

Yafoot

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renaissance+0.00on par

Yafoot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance ↓

Yafoot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Renaissance or draw

70%

Renaissance or Yafoot

73%

Draw or Yafoot

57%

Winning margin

Renaissance wins by 2+

21%

Yafoot wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Renaissance 1+ goals

75%

Renaissance 2+ goals

40%

Renaissance 3+ goals

16%

Yafoot 1+ goals

66%

Yafoot 2+ goals

30%

Yafoot 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Renaissance (draw refunded)

59%

Yafoot (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Yafoot away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance attack 1.33 + Yafoot defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Yafoot attack 0.91 + Renaissance defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Renaissance scores more

43%

level

27%

Yafoot scores more

30%

Renaissance at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff