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Yafoot vs OFTA — Elite One 2019

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
OFTA
OFTA
4/9/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 8Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yafoot30%
×Draw31%
OFTA39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
0.88
OFTA
1.04

OFTA creates 18% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 11 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.84
OFTA
0.64

allows per match

Yafoot
1.44
OFTA
0.91

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
OFTA+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

OFTA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
61%
Yafoot or OFTA
69%
Draw or OFTA
70%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
10%
OFTA wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
59%
Yafoot 2+ goals
22%
Yafoot 3+ goals
6%
OFTA 1+ goals
65%
OFTA 2+ goals
28%
OFTA 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
44%
OFTA (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

OFTA away — creates 0.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.84 + OFTA defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

OFTA attack 0.64 + Yafoot defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yafoot scores more
30%
level
31%
OFTA scores more
39%

OFTA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "OFTA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Yafoot 1–2 OFTA

OFTA beat Yafoot 2-1 in Elite One on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium in Limbe.