Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

OFTA vs Yafoot — Elite One 2019

OFTA
OFTA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yafoot
Yafoot
6/2/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 23Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

OFTA28%
×Draw25%
Yafoot47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFTA
1.12
Yafoot
1.53

Yafoot creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 31 away

creates per match

OFTA
0.82
Yafoot
0.97

allows per match

OFTA
2.09
Yafoot
1.42

finishing

OFTA+0.00on par
Yafoot+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFTA ↓

Yafoot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

OFTA or draw
53%
OFTA or Yafoot
75%
Draw or Yafoot
72%

Winning margin

OFTA wins by 2+
11%
Yafoot wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

OFTA 1+ goals
67%
OFTA 2+ goals
31%
OFTA 3+ goals
10%
Yafoot 1+ goals
78%
Yafoot 2+ goals
45%
Yafoot 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

OFTA (draw refunded)
37%
Yafoot (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFTA at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Yafoot away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFTA attack 0.82 + Yafoot defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.12

Yafoot attack 0.97 + OFTA defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

OFTA scores more
28%
level
25%
Yafoot scores more
47%

Yafoot at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Yafoot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OFTA 1 – 0 Yafoot

OFTA beat Yafoot 1-0 in Elite One on June 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.