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Yafoot vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
3/15/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Yafoot43%
×Draw26%
Foncha ST32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.47
Foncha ST
1.23

Yafoot creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 50 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.82
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

Yafoot
1.43
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
68%
Yafoot or Foncha ST
74%
Draw or Foncha ST
57%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
21%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
77%
Yafoot 2+ goals
43%
Yafoot 3+ goals
18%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
71%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
35%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
57%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.82 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.47

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Yafoot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yafoot scores more
43%
level
26%
Foncha ST scores more
32%

Yafoot at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yafoot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yafoot vs Foncha ST

Foncha ST beat Yafoot 1-0 in Elite Two on March 15, 2025.