Foncha ST 2–0 Yafoot: Result & Stats | Elite Two

Foncha ST

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yafoot

12/29/2024

Elite Two · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Foncha ST46%

×Draw27%

Yafoot27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foncha STExpected goals in this matchYafoot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.99

Foncha ST

1.39

Yafoot

0.99

Foncha ST creates 40% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 33 away

1.35

creates per match

0.91

1.06

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Foncha ST

1.35

Yafoot

0.91

allows per match

Foncha ST

1.06

Yafoot

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foncha ST+0.00on par

Yafoot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foncha ST ↓

Yafoot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Foncha ST or draw

73%

Foncha ST or Yafoot

73%

Draw or Yafoot

54%

Winning margin

Foncha ST wins by 2+

22%

Yafoot wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Foncha ST 1+ goals

75%

Foncha ST 2+ goals

40%

Foncha ST 3+ goals

16%

Yafoot 1+ goals

63%

Yafoot 2+ goals

26%

Yafoot 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Foncha ST (draw refunded)

63%

Yafoot (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foncha ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Yafoot away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foncha ST attack 1.35 + Yafoot defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Yafoot attack 0.91 + Foncha ST defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Foncha ST scores more

46%

level

27%

Yafoot scores more

27%

Foncha ST at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Foncha ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff