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Yafoot vs APEJES Academy — Elite Two 2020

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
1 – 3
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
3/23/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Yafoot23%
×Draw25%
APEJES Academy53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
0.96
APEJES Academy
1.61

APEJES Academy creates 68% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 20 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.82
APEJES Academy
1.80

allows per match

Yafoot
1.43
APEJES Academy
1.10

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
47%
Yafoot or APEJES Academy
75%
Draw or APEJES Academy
77%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
8%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
62%
Yafoot 2+ goals
25%
Yafoot 3+ goals
7%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
80%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
48%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
30%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.82 + APEJES Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

APEJES Academy attack 1.80 + Yafoot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yafoot scores more
23%
level
25%
APEJES Academy scores more
53%

APEJES Academy at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Yafoot 1–3 APEJES Academy

APEJES Academy beat Yafoot 3-1 in Elite Two on March 23, 2025.