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APEJES Academy vs Yafoot — Elite Two 2020

APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Yafoot
Yafoot
1/6/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

APEJES Academy54%
×Draw24%
Yafoot22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APEJES Academy
1.71
Yafoot
0.98

APEJES Academy creates 74% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

creates per match

APEJES Academy
2.00
Yafoot
0.91

allows per match

APEJES Academy
1.05
Yafoot
1.42

finishing

APEJES Academy+0.00on par
Yafoot+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APEJES Academy ↓

Yafoot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

APEJES Academy or draw
78%
APEJES Academy or Yafoot
76%
Draw or Yafoot
46%

Winning margin

APEJES Academy wins by 2+
30%
Yafoot wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

APEJES Academy 1+ goals
82%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
51%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
24%
Yafoot 1+ goals
62%
Yafoot 2+ goals
26%
Yafoot 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
72%
Yafoot (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APEJES Academy at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Yafoot away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APEJES Academy attack 2.00 + Yafoot defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Yafoot attack 0.91 + APEJES Academy defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

APEJES Academy scores more
54%
level
24%
Yafoot scores more
22%

APEJES Academy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: APEJES Academy vs Yafoot

APEJES Academy and Yafoot drew 1-1 in Elite Two on January 6, 2025.