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Yadro St. Petersburg vs Tver — Second League - Group 2 2020

Yadro St. Petersburg
Yadro St. Petersburg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tver
Tver
4/8/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 2Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yadro St. Petersburg34%
×Draw25%
Tver41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yadro St. Petersburg
1.33
Tver
1.50

Tver creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 89 away

creates per match

Yadro St. Petersburg
1.20
Tver
1.26

allows per match

Yadro St. Petersburg
1.73
Tver
1.46

finishing

Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par
Tver+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadro St. Petersburg ↓

Tver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Yadro St. Petersburg or draw
59%
Yadro St. Petersburg or Tver
75%
Draw or Tver
66%

Winning margin

Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+
15%
Tver wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals
74%
Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals
38%
Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals
15%
Tver 1+ goals
78%
Tver 2+ goals
44%
Tver 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
45%
Tver (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadro St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Tver away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.20 + Tver defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tver attack 1.26 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yadro St. Petersburg scores more
34%
level
25%
Tver scores more
41%

Tver at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Yadro St. Petersburg 0–1 Tver

Tver beat Yadro St. Petersburg 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Nova Arena in St. Petersburg.