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Tver vs Yadro St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Tver
Tver
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Yadro St. Petersburg
Yadro St. Petersburg
5/14/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 7Stadion Junost'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tver47%
×Draw25%
Yadro St. Petersburg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tver
1.58
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.16

Tver creates 36% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tver
1.43
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.13

allows per match

Tver
1.19
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.73

finishing

Tver+0.00on par
Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tver ↓

Yadro St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tver or draw
72%
Tver or Yadro St. Petersburg
75%
Draw or Yadro St. Petersburg
53%

Winning margin

Tver wins by 2+
24%
Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tver 1+ goals
79%
Tver 2+ goals
47%
Tver 3+ goals
21%
Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals
69%
Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals
32%
Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tver (draw refunded)
63%
Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tver at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.19 · 89 matches

Yadro St. Petersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tver attack 1.43 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.58

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.13 + Tver defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tver scores more
47%
level
25%
Yadro St. Petersburg scores more
28%

Tver at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tver will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tver vs Yadro St. Petersburg

Yadro St. Petersburg beat Tver 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Junost' in Tver'.