Yadro St. Petersburg 1–3 Torpedo Moskva II

Yadro St. Petersburg

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Torpedo Moskva II

5/20/2023

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 8Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yadro St. Petersburg33%

×Draw26%

Torpedo Moskva II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yadro St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.43

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.27

Torpedo Moskva II

1.43

Torpedo Moskva II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

1.20

creates per match

1.13

1.73

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.20

Torpedo Moskva II

1.13

allows per match

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.73

Torpedo Moskva II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadro St. Petersburg ↓

Torpedo Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Yadro St. Petersburg or draw

59%

Yadro St. Petersburg or Torpedo Moskva II

74%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva II

67%

Winning margin

Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+

14%

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals

72%

Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals

36%

Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals

14%

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals

76%

Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals

42%

Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

45%

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadro St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Torpedo Moskva II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.20 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.13 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yadro St. Petersburg scores more

33%

level

26%

Torpedo Moskva II scores more

41%

Torpedo Moskva II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff