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Torpedo Moskva II vs Yadro St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Torpedo Moskva II
Torpedo Moskva II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Yadro St. Petersburg
Yadro St. Petersburg
4/15/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 3Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Torpedo Moskva II38%
×Draw26%
Yadro St. Petersburg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Moskva II
1.36
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva II
1.00
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.13

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva II
1.48
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.73

finishing

Torpedo Moskva II+0.00on par
Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva II ↓

Yadro St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva II or draw
64%
Torpedo Moskva II or Yadro St. Petersburg
74%
Draw or Yadro St. Petersburg
62%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva II wins by 2+
18%
Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva II 1+ goals
74%
Torpedo Moskva II 2+ goals
39%
Torpedo Moskva II 3+ goals
16%
Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals
73%
Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals
37%
Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva II (draw refunded)
52%
Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

Yadro St. Petersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva II attack 1.00 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.13 + Torpedo Moskva II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Torpedo Moskva II scores more
38%
level
26%
Yadro St. Petersburg scores more
36%

Torpedo Moskva II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torpedo Moskva II vs Yadro St. Petersburg

Torpedo Moskva II beat Yadro St. Petersburg 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudny.