Yadro St. Petersburg 4–1 Rodina Moskva III

Yadro St. Petersburg

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rodina Moskva III

11/13/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yadro St. Petersburg37%

×Draw23%

Rodina Moskva III39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yadro St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.64

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.60

Rodina Moskva III

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 39 away

1.20

creates per match

1.54

1.73

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.20

Rodina Moskva III

1.54

allows per match

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.73

Rodina Moskva III

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadro St. Petersburg ↓

Rodina Moskva III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Yadro St. Petersburg or draw

61%

Yadro St. Petersburg or Rodina Moskva III

77%

Draw or Rodina Moskva III

63%

Winning margin

Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+

18%

Rodina Moskva III wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals

80%

Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals

47%

Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals

22%

Rodina Moskva III 1+ goals

81%

Rodina Moskva III 2+ goals

49%

Rodina Moskva III 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

49%

Rodina Moskva III (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadro St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Rodina Moskva III away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.00 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.20 + Rodina Moskva III defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rodina Moskva III attack 1.54 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yadro St. Petersburg scores more

37%

level

23%

Rodina Moskva III scores more

39%

Rodina Moskva III at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rodina Moskva III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff