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Rodina Moskva III vs Yadro St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Rodina Moskva III
Rodina Moskva III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yadro St. Petersburg
Yadro St. Petersburg
7/17/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rodina Moskva III41%
×Draw27%
Yadro St. Petersburg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva III
1.34
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.15

Rodina Moskva III creates 17% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva III
0.95
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.13

allows per match

Rodina Moskva III
1.16
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.73

finishing

Rodina Moskva III+0.00on par
Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva III ↓

Yadro St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva III or draw
68%
Rodina Moskva III or Yadro St. Petersburg
73%
Draw or Yadro St. Petersburg
59%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva III wins by 2+
19%
Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva III 1+ goals
74%
Rodina Moskva III 2+ goals
39%
Rodina Moskva III 3+ goals
15%
Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals
68%
Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals
32%
Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva III (draw refunded)
56%
Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva III at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

Yadro St. Petersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva III attack 0.95 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.34

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.13 + Rodina Moskva III defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rodina Moskva III scores more
41%
level
27%
Yadro St. Petersburg scores more
32%

Rodina Moskva III at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rodina Moskva III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva III vs Yadro St. Petersburg

Rodina Moskva III beat Yadro St. Petersburg 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on July 17, 2022.

The match was played at Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina in Moskva.