Yadro St. Petersburg 0–2 Elektron VN

Yadro St. Petersburg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Elektron VN

10/30/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Stadion Nova Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yadro St. Petersburg61%

×Draw20%

Elektron VN19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yadro St. PetersburgExpected goals in this matchElektron VN

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.09

Yadro St. Petersburg

2.12

Elektron VN

1.09

Yadro St. Petersburg creates 94% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 24 away

1.20

creates per match

0.46

1.73

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.20

Elektron VN

0.46

allows per match

Yadro St. Petersburg

1.73

Elektron VN

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Elektron VN+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadro St. Petersburg ↓

Elektron VN →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Yadro St. Petersburg or draw

81%

Yadro St. Petersburg or Elektron VN

80%

Draw or Elektron VN

39%

Winning margin

Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+

37%

Elektron VN wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals

88%

Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals

62%

Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals

35%

Elektron VN 1+ goals

66%

Elektron VN 2+ goals

30%

Elektron VN 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)

76%

Elektron VN (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadro St. Petersburg at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Elektron VN away — creates 0.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.20 + Elektron VN defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.12

Elektron VN attack 0.46 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Yadro St. Petersburg scores more

61%

level

20%

Elektron VN scores more

19%

Yadro St. Petersburg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Yadro St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff