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Elektron VN vs Yadro St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Elektron VN
Elektron VN
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Yadro St. Petersburg
Yadro St. Petersburg
9/5/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elektron VN30%
×Draw24%
Yadro St. Petersburg46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elektron VN
1.30
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.65

Yadro St. Petersburg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

creates per match

Elektron VN
0.87
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.13

allows per match

Elektron VN
2.17
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.73

finishing

Elektron VN+0.00on par
Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elektron VN ↓

Yadro St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Elektron VN or draw
54%
Elektron VN or Yadro St. Petersburg
76%
Draw or Yadro St. Petersburg
70%

Winning margin

Elektron VN wins by 2+
13%
Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Elektron VN 1+ goals
73%
Elektron VN 2+ goals
37%
Elektron VN 3+ goals
14%
Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals
81%
Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals
49%
Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Elektron VN (draw refunded)
40%
Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elektron VN at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

Yadro St. Petersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elektron VN attack 0.87 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.30

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.13 + Elektron VN defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elektron VN scores more
30%
level
24%
Yadro St. Petersburg scores more
46%

Yadro St. Petersburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yadro St. Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Elektron VN 1–4 Yadro St. Petersburg

Yadro St. Petersburg beat Elektron VN 4-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Aleksandra Nevskogo in Velikiy Novgorod.