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Yadah vs TelOne — Premier Soccer League 2026

Yadah
Yadah
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
TelOne
TelOne
9/27/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 29Heart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Yadah36%
×Draw32%
TelOne33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yadah
0.99
TelOne
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 62 away

creates per match

Yadah
0.98
TelOne
0.97

allows per match

Yadah
0.91
TelOne
1.00

finishing

Yadah+0.00on par
TelOne+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadah ↓

TelOne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Yadah or draw
67%
Yadah or TelOne
68%
Draw or TelOne
64%

Winning margin

Yadah wins by 2+
13%
TelOne wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yadah 1+ goals
63%
Yadah 2+ goals
26%
Yadah 3+ goals
8%
TelOne 1+ goals
61%
TelOne 2+ goals
24%
TelOne 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yadah (draw refunded)
52%
TelOne (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadah at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.91 · 85 matches

TelOne away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadah attack 0.98 + TelOne defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

TelOne attack 0.97 + Yadah defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Yadah scores more
36%
level
32%
TelOne scores more
33%

Yadah at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Yadah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Yadah 1–2 TelOne

TelOne beat Yadah 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Heart Stadium in Harare.