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TelOne vs Yadah — Premier Soccer League 2026

TelOne
TelOne
FT
4 – 1
Yadah
Yadah
8/28/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 21Ascot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

TelOne42%
×Draw30%
Yadah28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TelOne
1.17
Yadah
0.90

TelOne creates 30% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 85 away

creates per match

TelOne
1.00
Yadah
0.82

allows per match

TelOne
0.98
Yadah
1.34

finishing

TelOne+0.00on par
Yadah+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TelOne ↓

Yadah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

TelOne or draw
72%
TelOne or Yadah
70%
Draw or Yadah
58%

Winning margin

TelOne wins by 2+
18%
Yadah wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

TelOne 1+ goals
69%
TelOne 2+ goals
33%
TelOne 3+ goals
11%
Yadah 1+ goals
59%
Yadah 2+ goals
23%
Yadah 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

TelOne (draw refunded)
60%
Yadah (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TelOne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Yadah away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TelOne attack 1.00 + Yadah defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Yadah attack 0.82 + TelOne defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TelOne scores more
42%
level
30%
Yadah scores more
28%

TelOne at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TelOne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TelOne 4 – 1 Yadah

TelOne beat Yadah 4-1 in Premier Soccer League on August 28, 2019.

The match was played at Ascot Stadium in Gweru.