Yadah 1–1 Scotland Mabvuku: Result & Stats

Yadah

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Scotland Mabvuku

4/12/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 6Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Yadah22%

×Draw30%

Scotland Mabvuku48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YadahExpected goals in this matchScotland Mabvuku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.24

Yadah

0.74

Scotland Mabvuku

1.24

Scotland Mabvuku creates 68% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 28 away

0.98

creates per match

1.57

0.91

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Yadah

0.98

Scotland Mabvuku

1.57

allows per match

Yadah

0.91

Scotland Mabvuku

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yadah+0.00on par

Scotland Mabvuku+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadah ↓

Scotland Mabvuku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–117%

0–211%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Yadah or draw

52%

Yadah or Scotland Mabvuku

70%

Draw or Scotland Mabvuku

78%

Winning margin

Yadah wins by 2+

6%

Scotland Mabvuku wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Yadah 1+ goals

52%

Yadah 2+ goals

17%

Yadah 3+ goals

4%

Scotland Mabvuku 1+ goals

71%

Scotland Mabvuku 2+ goals

35%

Scotland Mabvuku 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Yadah (draw refunded)

32%

Scotland Mabvuku (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadah at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.91 · 85 matches

Scotland Mabvuku away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadah attack 0.98 + Scotland Mabvuku defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.74

Scotland Mabvuku attack 1.57 + Yadah defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Yadah scores more

22%

level

30%

Scotland Mabvuku scores more

48%

Scotland Mabvuku at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Scotland Mabvuku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff